Question at position 3 Section 1: Suppose the owner is risk averse. Given the expected monetary value of expanding the restaurant, would the owner choose to expand? Yes(We do not have enough information to predict what the owner would do)No单项选择题
A
Yes
B
(We do not have enough information to predict what the owner would do)
C
No

Question

Question at position 3 Section 1: Suppose the owner is risk averse. Given the expected monetary value of expanding the restaurant, would the owner choose to expand? Yes(We do not have enough information to predict what the owner would do)No单项选择题

A

Yes

B

(We do not have enough information to predict what the owner would do)

C

No

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

The question presents a scenario: the owner is risk averse, and we are told the expected monetary value (EMV) of expanding the restaurant. The task is to decide whether the owner would choose to expand, with the given answer options.

Option 1: Yes. This statement asserts that the owner would expand based solely on a positive or informative EMV. However, for a risk-averse individual, EMV alone is not enough. Risk-averse preferences weigh not just the average outcome but also the uncertainty or variability of that outcome. If expansion carries risk or a wide distribution of possible profits, a risk-averse owner might reject a favorable EMV to avoid potential downside. Without information about the risk/variance, distribution of outcomes, or the owner's exact utility function, we cannot conclude that expansion is the rational choice.

Option 2: (We do not have enough information to predict what the owner would do). This choice explicitly acknowledges the missing pieces needed to make a prediction: the full risk profile of the expansion (variance, downside risk, probabilities), the owner’s exact utility and risk tolerance, and possibly other options or constraints (financing, alternative investments, capital). Given risk aversion, two EMV-positive projects could lead to different decisions depending on risk characteristics, so the absence of those details means we cannot confidently predict the action.

Option 3: No. This asserts that a non-expansion decision is warranted, perhaps due to risk aversion. While risk aversion could lead to a rejection of expansions with high risk even if EMV is positive, this conclusion would require information about the risk level and the owner’s utility. Without such details, asserting a definitive “No” is not justified. A risk-averse person might still choose to expand if the risk is perceived as acceptable or if the EMV is accompanied by low downside or high probabilities of favorable outcomes.

In summary, the crux is that EMV provides only the average expectation and does not capture risk preferences or the full distribution of possible outcomes. A risk-averse decision-maker requires more information to translate EMV into a concrete action. Therefore, option 2 appropriately acknowledges the information gap, while options 1 and 3 commit to a decision without addressing the necessary risk considerations.