The J-curve effect theorizes a depreciation will cause a:

Question

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

A currency depreciation initially raises the domestic-currency value of imports while quantities adjust slowly, so the trade balance typically worsens before improving — this is the J-curve effect.

1) Relevant knowledge points and concepts
- Trade balance TB = value(exports) − value(imports) = Px·X − Pm·M (prices in domestic currency).
- Currency depreciation makes imports more expensive in domestic currency immediately and tends to make domestic goods cheaper for foreigners, but quantities (X, M) are often slow to respond.
- The Marshall–Lerner condition: for a depreciation to improve the trade balance in the long run, the sum of long-run price elasticities of exports and imports must exceed one.

2) Complete reasoning process step by step
- Step A (immediate effect): After depreciation, Pm (domestic price of imports) rises instantly. Export revenue in domestic currency may not rise immediately if contracts/prices are sticky.
- Step B (short run): Quantities X and M are relatively inelastic in the short run, so the higher Pm raises the import bill more than export revenue changes; TB worsens.
- Step C (long run): Quantities respond — exports increase (X ↑) and imports decrease (M ↓). If elasticities satisfy Marshall–Lerner, the value effects reverse and TB improves.

3) Intermediate calculation example
- Initial: Px=1, X=100 → exports=100; Pm=1, M=100 → imports=100; TB=0.
- Immediately after depreciation: Pm rises to 1.2, quantities unchanged → imports=1.2×100=120; exports still ≈100 → TB=100−120=−20 (worsened).
- Long run: X rises to 120, M falls to 80 → exports=1×120=120; imports=1.2×80=96 → TB=120−96=24 (improved).

4) Why the correct answer is correct
This sequence — initial deterioration of the trade deficit followed by later improvement — is exactly the J-curve prediction. The example calculations illustrate the initial fall and subsequent rise in the trade balance.

5) Why other options are incorrect
- "change in import quantities before a change in import prices": reversed timing; import prices change immediately, quantities adjust later.
- "change in export prices after a change in export quantities": timing/order is incorrect for the canonical J-curve description.
- "all of these": incorrect because the two intermediate statements are false or misordered, so not all choices are true.

6) Conclusion
The J-curve effect predicts that a depreciation will cause the trade deficit to grow before it shrinks — matching the provided correct answer: trade deficit to grow before it shrinks.

The J-curve effect theorizes a depreciation will cause a:单项选择题

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