A dam on a river that holds back a water reservoir begins to leak. Engineers say that there is a 10 percent chance of the dam breaking if repairs are not made. This is an example of ________.

Question

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

In this question, we are evaluating the type of probability described by the statement about the dam's chance of breaking.
Option 1: subjective probability. The 10 percent chance is an assessment provided by engineers based on judgment, data they have, and their belief about risk, rather than a result derived from long-run frequencies or a universality of equally likely outcomes. This aligns with the notion of subjective probability, which captures personal or expert belief about how likely an event is to occur.
Option 2: basic probability. This term is often used to refer to probability developed from empirical data or combinatorial counting in a straightforward, often frequency-based context. The scenario does not present a clean experimental frequency or a simple combinatorial count, so this label fits less well than subjective probability.
Option 3: classical probability. Classical probability relies on the assumption that all possible outcomes are equally likely, such as flipping a fair coin. The dam scenario does not indicate that outcomes (dam breaks vs. not breaks) are equally probable in a theoretical sense, so this option is not appropriate.
Option 4: expected value. The expected value is a numerical measure used in decision analysis that combines probabilities with outcomes, typically requiring a payoff for each outcome. While the 10% figure could feed into an expected value calculation, the given statement itself is a probability assessment, not a payoff-weighted expectation. Therefore this option does not directly describe the type of probability at issue.

A dam on a river that holds back a water reservoir begins to leak. Engineers say that there is a 10 percent chance of the dam breaking if repairs are not made. This is an example of ________.单项选择题

类似问题

Belinda Boyd is reviewing a newly proposed advertising campaign. Based on her 15 years' experience, she believes the campaign has a 75% chance of significantly increasing brand name recognition of the product. This is an example of assigning probabilities by the ________________ method.

If a scholar says there is an 80% chance that Shakespeare wrote the play Macbeth, what does this most likely mean?

If a scholar says there is an 80% chance that Shakespeare wrote the play Macbeth, what does this most likely mean?

Subjective evaluation of probabilities can exhibit

What was the world's first widely adopted biodiversity policy?

The aim of the Paris Agreement is to ensure that the earth’s preindustrial temperature is not exceeded by more than º Celsius.

The IPCC's mission is to Blank ______.

更多留学生实用工具

智能学习助手

风格化写作助手

论文查重助手

文献引用助手

课堂转译助手

课堂笔记助手

Quiz搜索助手

学校历年真题

智能刷题助手

智能匹配练习

希望你的学习变得更简单