Question at position 14 75% of the WKU graduates will pursue higher education after graduation. 20% of them join the workforce locally in China, while 5% join the workforce internationally abroad. Christina graduated from WKU last June 2025. It is likely that Christina will join the workforce locally in China after her graduation.inductive ; invalid ; unsound inductive ; weak ; uncogent inductive ; valid ; sound inductive ; strong ; cogent单项选择题
A
inductive ; invalid ; unsound
B
inductive ; weak ; uncogent
C
inductive ; valid ; sound
D
inductive ; strong ; cogent

Question

Question at position 14 75% of the WKU graduates will pursue higher education after graduation. 20% of them join the workforce locally in China, while 5% join the workforce internationally abroad. Christina graduated from WKU last June 2025. It is likely that Christina will join the workforce locally in China after her graduation.inductive ; invalid ; unsound inductive ; weak ; uncogent inductive ; valid ; sound inductive ; strong ; cogent单项选择题

A

inductive ; invalid ; unsound

B

inductive ; weak ; uncogent

C

inductive ; valid ; sound

D

inductive ; strong ; cogent

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

Because the premises report population statistics and the conclusion generalizes to a particular individual (Christina), this is an inductive probabilistic generalization. Relevant concepts: deductive vs inductive reasoning (deductive aims for guaranteed truth of conclusion given premises; inductive yields probabilistic support), strength of an inductive argument (how high the probability/support is), and cogency (an inductive argument is cogent if it is strong and its premises are true). Validity and soundness are primarily deductive notions (valid = impossible for true premises to yield a false conclusion; sound = valid + true premises).

Step-by-step reasoning:
1. Premises: 75% pursue higher education, 20% join the local workforce, 5% join international workforce. These partition the graduates (75% + 20% + 5% = 100%).
2. We want the probability Christina (a random WKU graduate) will join the local workforce: P(local) = 20% = 0.20.
3. The conclusion claims it is "likely" Christina will join the local workforce. Interpreting "likely" as meaning more probable than not (>50%) is standard in evaluating strength.
4. Since P(local) = 0.20 < 0.50, the statistical support for the conclusion is weak; the premises do not make the conclusion probable in the ordinary sense.

Why the correct answer is correct:
- This is inductive because it moves from group statistics to an individual case. 
- It is weak because the probability (20%) is low and does not make the conclusion plausibly true.
- It is uncogent because, although the premises may be true, the inductive support is weak; cogency requires both truth and strength.

Why other options are incorrect:
- Options invoking "valid" or "sound" misuse deductive terms; the argument is not deductive and thus cannot be valid/sound.
- "Strong; cogent" is wrong because the 20% figure does not constitute strong support.