Question at position 7 Only 25% of the population of Wenzhou is unemployed. Edgar is a local resident of Wenzhou. Edgar is most likely a working local resident of Wenzhou. inductive ; strong ; cogentdeductive ; invalid; unsounddeductive ; valid ; sound inductive; weak; uncogent单项选择题
A
inductive ; strong ; cogent
B
deductive ; invalid; unsound
C
deductive ; valid ; sound
D
inductive; weak; uncogent

Question

Question at position 7 Only 25% of the population of Wenzhou is unemployed. Edgar is a local resident of Wenzhou. Edgar is most likely a working local resident of Wenzhou. inductive ; strong ; cogentdeductive ; invalid; unsounddeductive ; valid ; sound inductive; weak; uncogent单项选择题

A

inductive ; strong ; cogent

B

deductive ; invalid; unsound

C

deductive ; valid ; sound

D

inductive; weak; uncogent

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

Because the premise gives a probabilistic fact (25% unemployed implies 75% employed), this is an inductive inference: moving from a general statistical claim about the population to a probable conclusion about an individual.

1. Relevant knowledge points and concepts
- Deductive vs. inductive: Deductive arguments aim to guarantee the conclusion; inductive arguments provide probabilistic support. 
- Validity and soundness apply to deductive arguments: validity = conclusion follows with certainty from premises; soundness = valid + true premises. 
- Strength and cogency apply to inductive arguments: strength = premises make the conclusion highly probable; cogency = strong + premises are actually true.

2. Step-by-step reasoning
- Premise: "Only 25% of the population of Wenzhou is unemployed." That means P(unemployed) = 0.25.  
- Therefore P(employed) = 1 − 0.25 = 0.75.  
- Conclusion: "Edgar is most likely a working local resident of Wenzhou" claims the individual is more likely employed than unemployed. Since P(employed) = 0.75 > 0.5, the conclusion is more probable than not.

3. Intermediate steps shown
- Calculate employment probability: P(employed) = 1 − P(unemployed) = 1 − 0.25 = 0.75.  
- Compare to majority threshold: 0.75 > 0.5 ⇒ “most likely” condition satisfied.

4. Why the correct answer is correct
- The argument is inductive because it uses a population statistic to infer a probability about an individual. It is strong because the premise yields a relatively high probability (75%) for the conclusion. It is cogent because the argument is strong and the given premise is presented as a factual claim (true for the purposes of the problem), so the inductive support is both strong and grounded.

5. Why other options are incorrect
- “Deductive; invalid; unsound”: The move from a statistic to an individual is not deductive; it’s not an attempt to provide certainty.  
- “Deductive; valid; sound”: The conclusion is not guaranteed by the premise, so it cannot be deductively valid or sound.  
- “Inductive; weak; uncogent”: The 75% chance is not weak; it is a strong probabilistic support, and because the premise is presented as true, the argument is cogent, not uncogent.