Two friends are both general practitioners (GPs) and have separate practices, GP 1 is based in Melbourne and GP 2 in Sydney. They both share an interest in hay fever. They both decide to count the number of new cases of asthma they see in their clinics over a period of six months.

Based on the information provided and the graph above, which of the following statements is true?

Question

Two friends are both general practitioners (GPs) and have separate practices, GP 1 is based in Melbourne and GP 2 in Sydney. They both share an interest in hay fever. They both decide to count the number of new cases of asthma they see in their clinics over a period of six months.

Based on the information provided and the graph above, which of the following statements is true?

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

Interpreting the graph and the accompanying description requires evaluating each statement against what the data show about Melbourne (green) and Sydney (purple).
Option 1: Melbourne showed a consistent increase in incidence rates of new hay fever cases over the 6-month period, while Sydney's cases fluctuated. This is not accurate. Melbourne starts around 8 in January, rises to about 10 in February, increases to ~12 in March, stays near 12 in April, rises to ~15 in May, then drops to ~8 in June. The pattern is not a steady, consistent increase; there are decreases (April to June) and plateaus. Meanwhile, Sydney fluctuates as well, with high values in January (~20), then decreases in February (~15), stays around ~12 in March, spikes in April (~28), then varies in May (~20) and June (~12). Both series show fluctuations rather than a smooth increase, so this statement is misleading.
Option 2: Differences in the overall incidence of new cases of hay fever between Melbourne and Sydney cannot be determined. The graph provides month-by-month counts for both cities, and while it does not yield a formal statistical test, you can observe relative counts and trends across the six months. Therefore, it is possible to discuss apparent differences and patterns from the graph, so claiming that differences cannot be determined is too strong a blanket statement.
Option 3: Sydney had a higher incidence rate of hay fever than Melbourne in the 6 months the study was conducted. Looking month by month, Sydney is higher in January, February, April, and May, but not in March and June where Melbourne is similar or higher in March and lower in June. This option asserts Sydney was higher across the entire period, which is not true because Melbourne exceeds Sydney in at least one or two months. Hence this is not accurate.
Option 4: The graph shows that environmental factors could be influencing hay fever incidence rates differently in Melbourne and Sydney. This interpretation aligns with the visual pattern: the two cities show different shapes and timings (e.g., Sydney peaking much higher in April while Melbourne remains relatively flatter; month-to-month patterns do not mirror each other). Such divergence suggests that local environmental factors (pollution, pollen types, climate) might be affecting the two cities differently, which is a reasonable explanation consistent with the data.

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