Which of the following statements would Dr Paul Hardisty be most likely to agree with?

Select a single answer.

Question

Which of the following statements would Dr Paul Hardisty be most likely to agree with?

Select a single answer.

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

With a business-as-usual approach, it is unlikely that global temperatures will remain within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels.

1) Relevant knowledge points and concepts
- Greenhouse gases trap heat; CO2 from fossil fuels is the main driver of recent warming.
- “Business-as-usual” (BAU) refers to continued high emissions without strong mitigation.
- The IPCC and climate models use scenarios showing BAU leads to substantially higher concentrations of greenhouse gases and greater warming.
- Global mean surface temperature has already risen about ~1.1°C above pre‑industrial levels; the 1.5°C threshold is a policy-relevant limit linked to much lower risks than higher warming.

2) Step-by-step reasoning
- Under BAU, cumulative CO2 emissions continue to grow, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
- Climate models map higher concentrations to higher equilibrium and near-term warming via climate sensitivity.
- Observed warming rate is roughly 0.15–0.25°C per decade; at that pace, an additional ~0.4°C (from ~1.1°C to 1.5°C) is likely within one to three decades if emissions are not curtailed.
- IPCC assessments show that without rapid, deep emissions reductions most scenarios exceed 1.5°C this century.

3) Calculations / intermediate steps
- Current warming ≈ 1.1°C. Required increase to reach 1.5°C = 1.5 − 1.1 = 0.4°C.
- At ~0.2°C/decade, time to exceed 1.5°C ≈ 0.4 / 0.2 = 2 decades (approximate illustrative calculation).

4) Why the correct answer is correct
- The scientific consensus (IPCC) and observed trends support the conclusion that BAU trajectories make staying within 1.5°C very unlikely without substantial mitigation.

5) Why other options are incorrect
- “All nations are equally affected” is false: impacts vary by geography, vulnerability, and exposure.
- “GDP is a good measure of a nation's overall progress” is contested; GDP omits wellbeing, inequality, and environmental damage.
- “Coal is a good source … relatively cheap” ignores external costs (health, climate) and that renewables often undercut coal on total-cost metrics.
- “A country's ability to adapt … does not depend on its wealth” is false: wealthier countries typically have more resources and infrastructure for adaptation.

6) Conclusion
This reasoning confirms the provided correct answer: With a business-as-usual approach, it is unlikely that global temperatures will remain within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels.

Which of the following statements would Dr Paul Hardisty be most likely to agree with? Select a single answer.单项选择题

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