In Neil Weinstein's research, he listed 24 negative events ranging from relatively small to catastrophic, and asked college students to estimate their risk for each. He found that:

Question

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

Comparative optimism (also called optimistic bias) predicts that people judge themselves as less likely than others to experience negative events, so Weinstein’s results show that most students rated their personal risk as lower than that of same-age, same-gender peers.

Relevant concepts: comparative risk judgment, optimistic bias, and self-enhancement. In Weinstein’s study participants were given 24 negative events (ranging from minor mishaps to catastrophic outcomes) and asked to estimate the likelihood that each would happen to them versus to the average student of the same age and gender. This design directly measures comparative optimism rather than absolute risk.

Step-by-step reasoning:
1. Participants provided two comparative estimates for each event: perceived personal risk and perceived peer risk (average student of same age/gender).
2. Researchers compared these paired judgments across the 24 events.
3. The consistent pattern was that, for most events, the self-ratings were lower than the peer-ratings—indicating participants believed they were less vulnerable than others.
4. This pattern across a wide range of events demonstrates a systematic optimistic bias rather than random error or inability to judge.

No numeric calculations are required here; the core observation is the directional difference between self and peer estimates. The correct answer states that most students estimated lower risk for themselves than for comparable peers, which matches the empirical finding.

Why other choices are incorrect:
- “Higher risk” contradicts the observed optimistic bias; participants did not view themselves as more vulnerable.
- “About the same risk” would imply no comparative bias; the data showed a systematic lower self-assessment.
- “Most students weren't able to estimate their risk” is false because participants did provide estimations and consistent comparative patterns emerged.

Therefore, the correct answer is: Most students estimated they were at lower risk than other students at their school of their same age and gender.

In Neil Weinstein's research, he listed 24 negative events ranging from relatively small to catastrophic, and asked college students to estimate their risk for each. He found that:单项选择题

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