Question at position 19 Premise: 95% of students in the class passed the exam. Jamie is a student in the class.Conclusion: Therefore, Jamie probably passed the exam. This statistical argument is BEST described as: DeductiveInvalidStrong and reliableWeak单项选择题
A
Deductive
B
Invalid
C
Strong and reliable
D
Weak

Question

Question at position 19 Premise: 95% of students in the class passed the exam. Jamie is a student in the class.Conclusion: Therefore, Jamie probably passed the exam. This statistical argument is BEST described as: DeductiveInvalidStrong and reliableWeak单项选择题

A

Deductive

B

Invalid

C

Strong and reliable

D

Weak

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

This is an inductive statistical syllogism: a general statistical fact about the class (95% passed) is used to draw a probable conclusion about an individual (Jamie).

1. Relevant concepts:
- Deductive vs. inductive reasoning: deductive arguments, if valid, guarantee the conclusion; inductive arguments provide probabilistic support. 
- Strength/reliability of inductive arguments: an inductive argument is stronger when the statistical premise yields a high probability that the particular instance shares the property. 
- Validity/invalidity: these terms apply to deductive arguments; an inductive argument cannot be deductively valid in the sense of guaranteeing the conclusion.

2. Step-by-step reasoning:
- Premise: 95% of students in the class passed the exam. This states a probability or frequency: P(passed | student in class) = 0.95.
- Target: Jamie is a student in the class; we want P(Jamie passed | premise). If Jamie is an ordinary member of the class (no special reason to be an exception), the best estimate for P(Jamie passed) is 0.95.
- Thus the premise provides strong probabilistic support for the conclusion that Jamie probably passed.

3. Calculation (intermediate step shown):
- Interpret "95%" as probability 95/100 = 0.95.
- So P(Jamie passed) ≈ 0.95 under the standard inductive interpretation.

4. Why "Strong and reliable" is correct:
- A 95% class pass-rate gives high probability that a randomly chosen student passed; therefore the inductive argument is both strong (high degree of support) and reliable (the conclusion is likely true given the premise).

5. Why other options are incorrect:
- Deductive: incorrect because the premise does not guarantee the conclusion—95% leaves a 5% chance of failure, so it is not a deductive guarantee. 
- Invalid: this is misleading here; while a deductive argument with these premises would be invalid, the classification asked concerns strength of an inductive inference. 
- Weak: incorrect because 95% constitutes strong, not weak, support.

Conclusion: The correct classification is "Strong and reliable," which matches the provided answer.

Question at position 19 Premise: 95% of students in the class passed the exam. Jamie is a student in the class.Conclusion: Therefore, Jamie probably passed the exam. This statistical argument is BEST described as: DeductiveInvalidStrong and reliableWeak单项选择题

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