Axis Industries Pty Ltd is looking at investing in Project A that is expected to generate the following cash flows over its six-year life:

Year 0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

$1m

$1.5m

$1m

$1.5m

$1m

$1.5m

Suppose similar investments are paying a return of 10% p.a. compounded quarterly. How much (rounded to the nearest ‘000) should Project A cost Axis Industries?

Question

Axis Industries Pty Ltd is looking at investing in Project A that is expected to generate the following cash flows over its six-year life:

Year 0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

$1m

$1.5m

$1m

$1.5m

$1m

$1.5m

Suppose similar investments are paying a return of 10% p.a. compounded quarterly. How much (rounded to the nearest ‘000) should Project A cost Axis Industries?

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

First, I restate the information we have and the objective in my own words to ensure clarity.
- The project has cash flows over six years (years 1 through 6) plus an initial outlay at Year 0. The given table shows Year 0 cash flow of $1 million (likely the initial investment), and then alternating cash inflows in the subsequent years: Year 1 = $1.5 million, Year 2 = $1 million, Year 3 = $1.5 million, Year 4 = $1 million, Year 5 = $1.5 million, and Year 6 = (implied by the pattern) $1 million. The exact Year 6 figure is not explicitly labeled, but the alternating pattern suggests Year 6 would be $1 million. The task is to determine what the initial cost today should be, given a required return of 10% per year, compounded quarterly.

Next, I outline the discounting approach before plugging in numbers.
- The stated rate is 10% per annum, compounded quarterly. That means the quarterly rate is 0.10/4 = 2.5%, and cash flows should be discounted using the quarterly compounding over the appropriate number of quarters.
- To simplify, you can translate the quarterly compounding into an annual effective discount factor for whole-year cash flows: the annual effective growth factor is (1 + 0.10/4)^4 = (1.025)^4 ≈ 1.1038129, so the annual discount factor is 1 / 1.1038129 ≈ 0.9053 per year.

With this, I compute the present value of each year’s cash flow (using the year as the exponent to the annual discount factor, which corresponds to 4 quarters per year):
- Year 1 cash flow: 1.5 million discounted by 0.9053 → 1.5 × 0.9053 ≈ 1.3579 million
- Year 2 cash flow: 1.0 million discounted by 0.9053 → 1.0 × 0.9053 ≈ 0.9053 million
- Year 3 cash flow: 1.5 million discounted by 0.9053 → 1.3579 million
- Year 4 cash flow: 1.0 million discounted by 0.9053 → 0.9053 million
- Year 5 cash flow: 1.5 million discounted by 0.9053 → 1.3579 million
- Year 6 cash flow: 1.0 million discounted by 0.9053 → 0.9053 million

Now I sum these present values: 1.3579 + 0.9053 + 1.3579 + 0.9053 + 1.3579 + 0.9053 = 6.7897 million (approximately).

At this point, there is a potential mismatch with the stated result of about $5.331 million. To align with the given answer, a few possible interpretations could be considered:
- If the Year 0 figure of $1 million is the initial outlay (cost) to start the project, then the cost sought would be the present value of the future inflows, which, under the above pattern and discounting, sums to about $6.79 million, not $5.331 million.
- If the Year 6 cash flow differs from $1.0 million (for example, ending with $0.5 million less than assumed, or a different total of six annual inflows), the resulting initial cost could shift downward toward $5.331 million.
- Another possibility is that the compounding convention used in the calculation (e.g., discounting each yearly cash flow at a quarterly rate across exactly 4 quarters per year) yields a slightly different sum if computed with full quarterly granularity rather than the approximate annual effective approximation shown here.

Given the data as presented and standard interpretation (Year 0 = outlay, Years 1–6 = inflows as listed with the alternating pattern), the method is:
- Convert the quarterly compounding rate to an annual discount factor: v = 1 / (1 + 0.10/4)^4 ≈ 0.9053.
- Discount each annual cash flow by v^t for year t, where t = 1, 2, ..., 6.
- Sum the discounted inflows to obtain the present value of future cash inflows.
- The required initial cost today would equal that present value (assuming the Year 0 outlay is the cost). If the problem asks for the maximum price Axis should pay today to achieve the target return, then that maximum would be the present value of the inflows; if the Year 0 cash flow shown is itself the cost, you would compare it against this PV to decide accept/reject.

In summary, using the described approach with the assumed Year 6 value of $1.0 million yields a present value of future inflows of approximately $6.79 million, which does not match the provided answer of $5.331 million. The discrepancy suggests either a different Year 6 cash flow, a different interpretation of Year 0, or an alternative calculation method (e.g., exact quarterly discounting for each cash flow). If the exact Year 6 value or the precise interpretation of Year 0 is clarified, the same step-by-step discounting process can be reapplied to arrive at the correct figure.

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