The graph below is from a study by Deaton (2011), about the trend in life evaluations in the USA. Why did the mean life evaluation increase steeply after January 2009?

Question

BlackTom AI · Accepted Answer

A sudden, persistent step-change in a time series of self-reported wellbeing is a classic sign of a measurement (survey) change rather than a genuine instantaneous change in underlying population wellbeing — in this case the survey question wording was changed.

Relevant knowledge points:
- Survey measurement effects: question wording, response scale, and question ordering can systematically shift means even if true wellbeing is unchanged.
- Time-series diagnostics: a genuine macro event typically produces gradual change or short-lived fluctuations tied to timing; a one-time upward jump that persists points to a change in measurement.
- Contextual plausibility: large, economy-wide improvements (or pharmaceutical releases) would not produce an immediate, discrete jump exactly at one survey date without other supporting evidence.

Step-by-step reasoning:
1. Observe the pattern: the mean life-evaluation rises sharply exactly after January 2009 and remains at the higher level (a discrete upward shift).
2. Ask which causes could produce that pattern. A temporary event (snowstorm) would produce a brief blip, not a sustained level shift. Monetary policy (Fed rate cuts) acts over time and primarily affects economic variables, not instantaneous self-evaluations in a single month. A pharmaceutical generic release would not align precisely with that date or produce such an immediate jump across the whole population.
3. Recall that survey instrument changes (wording, anchors, or placement) produce exactly this kind of step: respondents interpret the question differently and give systematically higher scores after the change.
4. Deaton (2011) and commentators note that the observed discontinuity was due to a change in the life-evaluation question wording (or survey implementation) around January 2009.

Why the correct answer is correct:
- The abrupt, lasting increase matches the expected effect of a wording/measurement change and is inconsistent with the other options’ temporal and causal patterns.

Why other options are incorrect:
- (a) Fed rate cuts are gradual and occurred earlier; unlikely to cause an instantaneous jump.
- (b) A snowstorm is short-lived; would not create a sustained mean shift.
- (d) A Prozac generic release does not align with timing or magnitude and would not uniformly shift life evaluations in one month.
- (e) Is false because option (c) explains the discontinuity.

Conclusion: The correct answer is c. In the survey, the wording of the life evaluation question was changed.

The graph below is from a study by Deaton (2011), about the trend in life evaluations in the USA. Why did the mean life evaluation increase steeply after January 2009?Single choice

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